Real-Time Prediction of Mortality, Cardiac Arrest, and Thromboembolic Complications in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Background: COVID-19 infection carries significant morbidity and mortality. Current risk prediction for complications in COVID-19 is limited, and existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic course of the disease. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the COVID-HEART predictor, a novel continuously updating risk-prediction technology to forecast adverse events in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: Retrospective registry data from patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection admitted to 5 hospitals were used to train COVID-HEART to predict all-cause mortality/cardiac arrest (AM/CA) and imaging-confirmed thromboembolic events (TEs) (n = 2,550 and n = 1,854, respectively). To assess COVID-HEART's performance in the face of rapidly changing clinical treatment guidelines, an additional 1,100 and 796 patients, admitted after the completion of development data collection, were used for testing. Leave-hospital-out validation was performed. Results: Over 20 iterations of temporally divided testing, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.917 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.916-0.919) and 0.757 (95% CI: 0.751-0.763) for prediction of AM/CA and TE, respectively. The interquartile ranges of median early warning times were 14 to 21 hours for AM/CA and 12 to 60 hours for TE. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the left-out hospitals were 0.956 (95% CI: 0.936-0.976) and 0.781 (95% CI: 0.642-0.919) for prediction of AM/CA and TE, respectively. Conclusions: The continuously updating, fully interpretable COVID-HEART predictor accurately predicts AM/CA and TE within multiple time windows in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In its current implementation, the predictor can facilitate practical, meaningful changes in patient triage and resource allocation by providing real-time risk scores for these outcomes. The potential utility of the predictor extends to COVID-19 patients after hospitalization and beyond COVID-19.

Natriuretic Peptide Levels and Clinical Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection.

OBJECTIVES: There is increasing evidence of cardiovascular morbidity associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (coronavirus disease 2019). Pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is a biomarker of myocardial stress, associated with various respiratory and cardiac outcomes. We hypothesized that pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level would be associated with mortality and clinical outcomes in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis using adjusted logistic and linear regression to assess the association of admission pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (analyzed by both cutoff > 125 pg/mL and log transformed pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) with clinical outcomes. We additionally treated body mass index, a confounder of both pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels and coronavirus disease 2019 outcomes, as an ordinal variable. SETTING: We reviewed hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who had a pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level measured within 48 hours of admission between March 1, and August 31, 2020, from a multihospital U.S. health system. PATIENTS: Adult patients (≥ 18 yr old; n = 1232) with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to the health system. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, and troponin I level, higher pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level was significantly associated with death and secondary outcomes of new heart failure, length of stay, ICU duration, and need for ventilation among hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients. This significance persisted after adjustment for body mass index as an ordinal variable. The adjusted hazard ratio of death for log transformed pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.23-1.97; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Further investigation is warranted on the utility of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide for clinical prognostication in coronavirus disease 2019 as well as implications of abnormal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide in the underlying pathophysiology of coronavirus disease 2019-related myocardial injury.

Myocardial Work Efficiency, A Novel Measure of Myocardial Dysfunction, Is Reduced in COVID-19 Patients and Associated With In-Hospital Mortality.

Background: Although troponin elevation is common in COVID-19, the extent of myocardial dysfunction and its contributors to dysfunction are less well-characterized. We aimed to determine the prevalence of subclinical myocardial dysfunction and its association with mortality using speckle tracking echocardiography (STE), specifically global longitudinal strain (GLS) and myocardial work efficiency (MWE). We also tested the hypothesis that reduced myocardial function was associated with increased systemic inflammation in COVID-19. Methods and Results: We conducted a retrospective study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients undergoing echocardiography (n = 136), of whom 83 and 75 had GLS (abnormal >-16%) and MWE (abnormal <95%) assessed, respectively. We performed adjusted logistic regression to examine associations of GLS and MWE with in-hospital mortality. Patients were mean 62 ± 14 years old (58% men). While 81% had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), prevalence of myocardial dysfunction was high by STE; [39/83 (47%) had abnormal GLS; 59/75 (79%) had abnormal MWE]. Higher MWE was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in unadjusted [OR 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.99); p = 0.048] and adjusted models [aOR 0.87 (95% CI 0.78-0.97); p = 0.009]. In addition, increased systemic inflammation measured by interleukin-6 level was associated with reduced MWE. Conclusions: Subclinical myocardial dysfunction is common in COVID-19 patients with clinical echocardiograms, even in those with normal LVEF. Reduced MWE is associated with higher interleukin-6 levels and increased in-hospital mortality. Non-invasive STE represents a readily available method to rapidly evaluate myocardial dysfunction in COVID-19 patients and can play an important role in risk stratification.

The role of sex and inflammation in cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Higher mortality in COVID-19 in men compared to women is recognized, but sex differences in cardiovascular events are less well established. We aimed to determine the independent contribution of sex to stroke, myocardial infarction and death in the setting of COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in a racially/ethnically diverse population. Clinical features, laboratory markers and clinical events were initially abstracted from medical records, with subsequent clinician adjudication. RESULTS: Of 2060 patients, myocardial injury (32% vs 23%, p = 0.019), acute myocardial infarction (2.7% vs 1.6%, p = 0.114), and ischemic stroke (1.8% vs 0.7%, p = 0.007) were more common in men vs women. In-hospital death occurred in 160 men (15%) vs 117 women (12%, p = 0.091). Men had higher odds of myocardial injury (odds ratio (OR) 2.04 [95% CI 1.43-2.91], p < 0.001), myocardial infarction (1.72 [95% CI 0.93-3.20], p = 0.085) and ischemic stroke (2.76 [95% CI 1.29-5.92], p = 0.009). Despite adjustment for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors, male sex predicted mortality (HR 1.33; 95% CI:1.01-1.74; p = 0.041). While men had significantly higher markers of inflammation, in sex-stratified analyses, increase in interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, ferritin and d-dimer were predictive of mortality and myocardial injury similarly in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusted odds of myocardial injury, ischemic stroke and all-cause mortality, but not myocardial infarction, are significantly higher in men compared to women with COVID-19. Higher inflammatory markers are present in men but associated similarly with risk in both men and women. These data suggest that adverse cardiovascular outcomes in men vs. women are independent of cardiovascular comorbidities.

Multimodality Imaging for Cardiac Evaluation in Patients with COVID-19.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A growing number of cardiovascular manifestations resulting from the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) have been described since the beginning of this global pandemic. Acute myocardial injury is common in this population and is associated with higher rates of morbidity and mortality. The focus of this review centers on the recent applications of multimodality imaging in the diagnosis and management of COVID-19-related cardiovascular conditions. RECENT FINDINGS: In addition to standard cardiac imaging techniques such as transthoracic echocardiography, other modalities including computed tomography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging have emerged as useful adjuncts in select patients with COVID-19 infection, particularly those with suspected ischemic and nonischemic myocardial injury. Data have also emerged suggesting lasting COVID-19 subclinical cardiac effects, which may have long-term prognostic implications. With the spectrum of COVID-19 cardiovascular manifestations observed thus far, it is important for clinicians to recognize the role, strengths, and limitations of multimodality imaging techniques in this patient population.

Prominent Longitudinal Strain Reduction of Basal Left Ventricular Segments in Patients With Coronavirus Disease-19.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has been associated with overt and subclinical myocardial dysfunction. We observed a recurring pattern of reduced basal left ventricular (LV) longitudinal strain on speckle-tracking echocardiography in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and subsequently aimed to identify characteristics of affected patients. We hypothesized that patients with COVID-19 with reduced basal LV strain would demonstrate elevated cardiac biomarkers. METHODS AND RESULT: Eighty-one consecutive patients with COVID-19 underwent speckle-tracking echocardiography. Those with poor quality speckle-tracking echocardiography (n = 2) or a known LV ejection fraction of <50% (n = 4) were excluded. Patients with an absolute value basal longitudinal strain of <13.9% (2 standard deviations below normal) were designated as cases (n = 39); those with a basal longitudinal strain of ≥13.9% were designated as controls (n = 36). Demographics and clinical variables were compared. Of 75 included patients (mean age 62 ± 14 years, 41% women), 52% had reduced basal strain. Cases had higher body mass index (median 34.1; interquartile range 26.5-37.9 kg/m2 vs median 26.9, interquartile range, 24.8-30.0 kg/m2, P = .009), and greater proportions of Black (74% vs 36%, P = .0009), hypertensive (79% vs 56%, P = .026), and diabetic patients (44% vs 19%, P = .025) compared with controls. Troponin and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels trended higher in cases, but were not significantly different. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced basal LV strain is common in patients with COVID-19. Patients with hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and Black race were more likely to have reduced basal strain. Further investigation into the significance of this strain pattern is warranted.

Takotsubo Syndrome in the Setting of COVID-19.

A 58-year-old woman was admitted with symptoms of coronavirus disease-2019. She subsequently developed mixed shock, and an echocardiogram showed mid-distal left ventricular hypokinesis and apical ballooning, findings typical of stress, or takotsubo, cardiomyopathy. Over the next few days her left ventricular function improved, the further supporting the reversibility of acute stress cardiomyopathy. (Level of Difficulty: Beginner.).